Time once again for my extremely reliable, one hundred percent accurate Oscar predictions! If you want the short version, scroll right down to the end, where I recap all my predictions in a tidy column. If you want to read about the whys and wherefores and let me hedge my bets a bit, as well as vote for my personal favorites, read on.
I am abstaining from writing about or voting in the categories in which I have not seen a majority of the nominees (which is just the three short film categories, though I will say that I Am Ready, Warden is absolutely one of the best films of any length I’ve seen in the past year), but I will still bet on them. Also, it’s probably a good thing I don’t actually get to vote because, as you will see, if I had my way it would just be The Substance and The Brutalist for most of the night, which might make for a boring ceremony.
And, for another great article about The Oscars, check out Wesley Master’s Exploring The Design and Aesthetic of the 2025 Best Picture Nominees.
BEST PICTURE: The Brutalist seemed like the obvious choice even before I’d seen it (twice now; I love it), but Academy voting membership skews a bit younger now and far more of them have likely actually seen Anora, a much shorter and more youthful film (from a significantly older filmmaker). As unlikely as Anora might have seemed in many years past, we’re in a post-Everything Everywhere All At Once world now (which helps to account for the Oscars success of my personal favorite of the year, The Substance, despite the Academy’s usual aversion to horror movies), and we just had a more traditional Best Picture winner in Oppenheimer last year. If anything could still pull the upset, it just might be Conclave (another more traditional and older-skewing movie), but I think the smart money is on the plucky young stripper from Brighton Beach.
BET: Anora
VOTE: The Substance
BEST DIRECTOR: This is a much closer call than Best Picture, and we may be in one of the rare years when the vote is split between Picture and Director. Brady Corbet certainly accomplished something truly extraordinary on a very small budget, but with his DGA win and all the other acclaim Anora has gotten, as well as its relative accessibility to mass audiences compared to The Brutalist, this looks like the year for the Oscars to finally recognize Sean Baker in a major way.
BET: Sean Baker, Anora
VOTE: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
BEST ACTOR: There are few things the Academy loves more in its acting categories than a famous person playing a famous person, and Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan is an obvious slam-dunk in that regard. However, perhaps the one thing they love more is a comeback story, as witnessed by Brendan Fraser’s well deserved win for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis, and while Adrien Brody has been active (especially in Wes Anderson movies) since his big win for The Pianist in 2002, this is by far his biggest and most impressive work in all that time. Chalamet is currently the same age Brody was at that time, which makes the closeness of this race all the more intriguing. Brody’s László Tóth feels as real to me as Dylan despite never having existed at all, but between the boy’s more active campaigning and his recent SAG win (which certainly doesn’t guarantee a win on Oscar night—just last year Emma Stone lost at the SAG Awards and won the Oscar), I think this is the one category that will save A Complete Unknown from going home empty-handed.
BET: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
VOTE: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
BEST ACTRESS: An even bigger comeback story, as Demi Moore has never even been nominated before and was most recently remembered as an unfortunate punchline at the 2022 Oscars. By her own account, Moore was dismissed as a “popcorn actress” early in her career, and her likely vindication here is well deserved for her screen-scorching performance in The Substance. This will be the most respect the horror genre has gotten in this category since the one-two punch of Misery and Silence of the Lambs back in the early 90s. The odds are close between Moore and Mikey Madison’s fiery breakout performance in Anora, but I’m projecting Monstro Elisa-Sue for the win.
BET: Demi Moore, The Substance
VOTE: Demi Moore, The Substance
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kieran Culkin is an unstoppable force, both in A Real Pain and in his real-life career at the moment. His run of success on Succession (does that even count as a pun?) seems sure to continue with his first Oscar win, and he is terrific in the role, brilliantly capturing the double meaning of the film’s title in his portrayal of the kind of loved one so many of us have, who is a pain to be around at times due to the deep pain at their own core. It is by turns a funny, endearing, and heart-wrenching performance, but I would have to give my vote to Guy Pearce, who is long overdue for his first nomination as an absolutely essential part of my favorite movie nominated here. His Harrison Lee Van Buren is an all-timer of a parasitic villain, and Pearce plays his pretentious, manipulatively charming monstrosity to perfection. While we’re here, it’s worth mentioning Clarence Maclin’s snub for his stellar performance in Sing Sing, one of the best movies likely to go home empty-handed Sunday night.
BET: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
VOTE: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: And now we come to the big, messy elephant in the room: Emilia Pérez. Practically the only thing the far right and far left can agree on right now is that Emilia Pérez is trash, though many on both sides have probably not actually seen it. Those on the far right condemned it out of hand for normalizing trans representation, while those on the left watched it at 1.5 speed on a laptop while simultaneously reading hot takes on their phones about how wrong it got its trans (and Mexican) representation, and everyone at least saw that one musical number (you know the one), which is unfortunately about as good as the movie gets. Those of us who did sit through it tend to agree that it is a hot fucking mess, and if you were able to enjoy it, hey, more for you. I think it might be the worst movie I saw all year, which is crazy when you consider the fact that the Joker sequel exists. Anyway, Zoe Saldaña will win this, but it should be Felicity Jones for her more compelling work in a much, much better movie.
BET: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
VOTE: Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: This is traditionally the category in which the Academy rewards a movie too edgy to actually have a shot at Best Picture (see also Get Out, Promising Young Woman, Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained). The Substance is probably the edgiest one of all, but I think the smart bet is on Anora again.
BET: Sean Baker, Anora
VOTE: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The likely winner in this category is way funnier and more fun than I was expecting it to be, a crackling-paced detective thriller in an unusual setting, with great dialogue and strong, engaging characters. My favorite movie in the category is perhaps more notable for its tone and cinematography, but the screenplay also deftly handles its shifting perspectives and non-chronological narrative structure with subtlety and grace.
BET: Peter Straughan, Conclave
VOTE: RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: The dreadful Emilia Pérez was the frontrunner in this category right out of the gate, but the backlash from its poor trans and Mexican representation, the horrible statements made by its star, and just plain being kind of a shockingly bad movie has lowered its odds. Walter Salles’s moving true story I’m Still Here seems set to pick up the slack, and it’s a much better choice, though I’m still rooting for the cat.
BET: I’m Still Here
VOTE: Flow
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: There is surely no more urgent and important documentary from 2024 than No Other Land, which is probably why it has taken so long for it to be available for most of the country to see. It is a very heavy watch, as are all the movies in this category, but a necessary humanization of a situation that is all too easy to ignore for most Americans. The most enjoyable to watch of the four I’ve seen (I’m still missing Porcelain War) is the remarkable historical documentary Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, which brilliantly details the plot to assassinate Patrice Lumumba in 1961, and certainly promises to reward repeat viewings with its densely layered style and voluminous substance.
BET: No Other Land
VOTE: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Unlike last year, when I felt compelled to write in my own favorite for this category (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem), I loved every movie nominated here, but my favorite is certainly Flow, one of the best movies of any kind from 2024. Its total lack of dialogue or anthropomorphic animals makes it less widely accessible than something like The Wild Robot, which will probably actually win, but I can’t bear to bet against one of my biggest favorites of the year, on the chance that it does pull the upset.
BET: Flow
VOTE: Flow
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The establishing shots alone are worth the price of admission to The Brutalist, in stunning VistaVision, no less. A couple of notable snubs in this category: the hypnotically subjective camerawork of Nickel Boys and the immaculately designed, gorgeously garish frames of The Substance (yes, I just want the crazy body-horror movie to win all the awards, so what?)
BET: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
VOTE: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
BEST EDITING: The “wits” were out in full force last year, demanding to know how a three-hour movie could win an award for best editing, as if making a movie shorter is all the job entails. In fact, the brilliance of the editing on last year’s winner is similar to that of the longest movie nominated this year in that it does what good editing should do: enable a movie to captivate its audience for the entire running time, no matter how long or short. The Brutalist has lost favor in a number of categories recently, though, and the smart pick here is either Conclave or Anora, both of which also benefit greatly from their editing in maintaining a riveting pace.
BET: Nick Emerson, Conclave
VOTE: David Jancso, The Brutalist
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Now is the time where I may as well confess that I found Wicked: Part 1 to be an annoying, bloated cash-grab, beginning when that “Part 1” popped up onscreen, signifying the obligation to sit through another 150-minute-plus monstrosity the following year. More for you if you’re into it, but I refuse to sanction this nonsense with any of my hypothetical votes.
BET: Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales, Wicked: Part 1
VOTE: Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia, The Brutalist
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: See above.
BET: Paul Tazewell, Wicked: Part 1
VOTE: Linda Muir, Nosferatu
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: All hail Monstro Elisa-Sue!
BET: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance
VOTE: Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The ape movies might split the vote, but one thing is for sure: good as it looks at other times, there are at least two sequences in Alien: Romulus that should have kept it from being nominated in this category, unless that nomination was meant to be sarcastic. Anyway, considering its other nominations and general acclaim, Dune seems like the obvious choice here.
BET: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two
VOTE: Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The second I see its name, I hear that majestic four-note melody in my head, and suddenly I can see the opening titles, the highway rushing along as those striking chords convey the breathless promise of America, with all the darkness underlying it still to come. The Brutalist all the way.
BET: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
VOTE: Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Two nominations for one of the worst musicals ever made and they didn’t even have the balls (wink wink) to make one of them “La Vaginoplastia”? Bullshit. This is also a good time to point out one of the most obvious and egregious snubs of the season: the fact that Luca Guadagnino’s highly acclaimed Challengers is entirely absent from the Oscars, including Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s propulsive score and the original song “Compress / Repress,” which is far better than anything in Emilia Pérez. Here’s hoping its two nominations in this category split the vote, and the award goes to a much more soulful and beautiful song in a far superior movie.
BET: “El Mal,” Clément Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
VOTE: “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
BEST SOUND: Dylan never should have gone electric. This one will likely go to the boy’s other big movie of the year. I don’t have a strong opinion on this category, so I’ll just vote for my favorite movie nominated.
BET: Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two
VOTE: Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts, The Wild Robot
PREDICTIONS RECAP:
- BEST PICTURE: Anora
- BEST DIRECTOR: Anora
- BEST ACTOR: A Complete Unknown
- BEST ACTRESS: The Substance
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: A Real Pain
- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Emilia Pérez
- BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Anora
- BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Conclave
- BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: I’m Still Here
- BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No Other Land
- BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Flow
- BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Brutalist
- BEST EDITING: Conclave
- BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Wicked: Part 1
- BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Wicked: Part 1
- BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: The Substance
- BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Dune: Part Two
- BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Brutalist
- BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
- BEST SOUND: Dune: Part Two
- BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT: A Lien
- BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: I Am Ready, Warden
- BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Wander to Wonder
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